Property prices rise as crime levels decrease, study shows

Tuesday, 20th March 2018, 3:08 pm
Updated Tuesday, 20th March 2018, 3:14 pm

New research reveals the safest places to invest in property, based on official police data and the 2018 UK House Price Index.

These hot spots include Chesterfield and other swathes of Derbyshire and the Peak District.

Across England, the data clearly illustrates that where crime falls, property prices rise and where crime rises, property prices fall.

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Of all 23 districts in England that witnessed a fall in house prices, 83 per cent of these districts also had a significant increase in the number of reported crimes.

Anyone thinking of moving house or investing in a buy-to-let rental might want to check out the research produced by Goodmove.co.uk that highlights the crime capitals and safe havens of England and the impact the level of crime is having on property prices.

Starting with the safe havens, alarmingly, there are only 26 districts in the whole of England (excluding the Isles of Scilly) where the level of crime fell. Bearing in mind there are well over 200 districts, it’s clear that crime is rife.

The impact on property prices? Of the 26 areas where crime fell, 85 per cent saw a rise in house prices, from 2017 to 2018.

Narrowing it down to the top 10 areas where crime fell the most, this figure increases to 90 per cent. While correlation doesn’t equal causation, there is a clear relationship between falling crime and an increase in average property prices.

Eden in Cumbria saw the strongest correlation, with a 5.93 per cent fall in crime coinciding with a 10.28 per cent increase in house prices.

But included in the top ten areas to benefit from falls in crime were Chesterfield, with a crime reduction of 4.84 per cent seeing a house price change of 2.12 per cent, and the High Peak, where crime was down 4.74 per cent and house prices up 3.17 per cent. North East Derbyshire and the Derbyshire Dales benefited similarly.

Of districts that witnessed a decline in house prices, 83 per cent of these also saw a rise in total number of crimes. Most were London area, but Oxford saw a 7.71 per cent rise in crime with a drop in house prices of 4.47 per cent.