Racing pundit Tony McCormick from www.irishbigracetrends.com beforetheoff.com and racing radio station racingfm.com looks at the Eight Year Trends for Saturday’s Crabbies Grand National
To help you narrow the Grand National field down to a shortlist you will be able to make a couple of selections for the big race, here are a miscellany of trends to keep in mind from the last eight renewals of the world’s most famous steeple chase.
Using the trends in a race such as the National can give the casual punter an extra edge when selecting the winner but, it must be said, it can give rise to the odd trends-buster.Tony McCormick
The last eight winners were Irish or French-bred. In the last eight Nationals, 50 runners bred in Great Britain have set off in the race, only four have managed to finish in the first four places. This is a negative for the GB-bred David Pipe-trained Soll.
The last eight winners were aged between nine and 11-years-old. Seventy runners aged seven or eight-years-old have run in the great race since 2007, only five have managed to place. A further 29 have started the National aged 12 or older, only one of those managed to finish in the first four.
From the last 32 win and place positions in the Grand National, 26 were aged between nine and 11.
Although a lot easier than it used to be, the figures tell us the Grand National is still a colossal task for a young horse. Highly rated they may be and certainly not out of the question, but the eight-year-olds, Many Clouds, The Druids Nephew, Spring Heeled and Shutthefrontdoor will be pushed to the limit on Saturday.
The last eight winners were running between 21 and 60 days of their last run. Favourite Shutthefrontdoor, the mount of Tony McCoy, as well as being an eight-year-old, has not seen a race track for 152 days come Saturday. It will be a massive ask of the Accordion gelding, but it would be folly to write him off just yet.
The last eight runners to run to National glory carried between 10st 3lbs and 11st 6lbs.
The last four winners, Pineau De Re, Aurora’s Encore, Neptune Collonges and Ballabriggs carried between 11st 3lbs and 11st 6lbs to victory, with 100/1 victor Mon Mome also carrying 11st 6lbs in the 2009 National.
Five of the last six Grand Nationals have seen the winners carrying between 11st 3lbs and 11st 6lbs, an interesting figure if you think that coincides with the famous fences being altered and reconstructed due to animal welfare issues.
Looking at runners coming in to the race in form, seven of the last eight winners had finished in the first two in one of their last three starts. Six of the last eight winners of the National had finished in the first five in their last race.
Using the trends in a race such as the national can give the casual punter an extra edge when selecting the winner of The Crabbies Grand National, but, it must be said, it can give rise to the odd trends-buster!
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