RACING AHEAD with Tony McCormick
Racing pundit Tony McCormick from www.irishbigracetrends.com beforetheoff.com and racing radio station racingfm.com looks at trainers who are ready for the early weeks of the National Hunt season.
October is usually quiet as far as the big yards are concerned and this usually gives the others a chance to claim a couple of prizes.
Here, I have identified a number of those trainers for whom getting winners in October is an integral part of the jumps season. I have looked at the results in the last four years of the following race types; Handicap Novice Chases. Handicap Novice Hurdles. Handicap Chases. Handicap Hurdles.
Surprisingly, Jonjo O’Neill leads the table on 29 winners, though the trainer also has the most number of runners in 159. Backing those runners to with a £10 stake would have had you looking at a £500 deficit.
I’m not one to skip over that negative as in the total of 29 winners, there must be some positives to be found.
O’Neill’s runs to winners in the last four seasons has being pretty consistent with 45 runners and nine winners in 2011, 54 to five in 2012, 45 to eight in 2013 with seven winners from 51 runners last season.
My digging starts with eliminating all runners over the age of eight, here we get rid of a total of 26 losers at the cost of just one winner.
Secondly we will not be following his runners at Worcester or those priced over 12/1.
Next, we should be concentrating on Class 2, 3 and 4 contests, while O’Neill’s inmates should not have run in more than 10 handicaps or had run on no more than five occasions during the season.
Six simple rules to follow Jonjo O’Neill’s runners in October, which gives a steady profit. Following this angle has produced five winners from 15, four from 19, eight from 24 and six winners from 24 since 2011. Remember there are more losers than winners, but it is a terrific angle to monitor during the month.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is another trainer with a solid October record, even boasting a profit just backing his handicappers blindly.
We have a trainer whose winners are no bigger than 14/1, aged between four and 10, running in Class 2 contests or lower, ran no more than five times in the season and had finished in the first four in one of their last three starts. These angles reap a 24% strike rate.
Last season, Neil Mulholland sent out five winners from 15 runners, so one can expect much of the same this term, so following the trainer’s runners aged between four and seven, with no more than four runs in the season and in Class 3 contests or lower, will return a healthy profit.
Dr Richard Newland has had 10 winners in October in the last three years. I suggest we follow Newland’s runners aged between five and eight, in Class 3 or below contests, with an SP up to 9/1 and are not Novices, running in a Handicap Chase or Hurdle.