TONY’S TRENDS: Tips for Yorkshire meetings in May
Racing pundit Tony McCormick from www.irishbigracetrends.com looks at a number of ‘mini trend angles’ for the upcoming meetings at three Yorkshire tracks in May.
A whole host of Yorkshire tracks open their gates over the next couple of days, starting with Thirsk on Saturday 10 May
David O’Meara has had a terrific start to his training career and likes to target Thirsk in May. Over the last three seasons he has posted a 19% strike rate from 36 runners.
Figures of 29 losers though, have punters counting their losses, if backing O’Meara blind. With just a simple ‘three card trick’ we can not only improve the strike rate, but our profits.
Sticking to his Handicap runners, runners with an starting price no bigger than 8/1 and with an official rating of up to 82, we engage a massive 70% strike rate, with a 23-point profit.
Ruth Carr, is another trainer who likes a tilt at the Thirsk handicaps. Carr, herself has a strike rate of 17% at the track in May since 2011 and a 37-point profit.
Sticking to her Handicap runners between 6f and 1m and runners in the same class or up in grade from their last run, Carr’s strike rate hits 29%, with an impressive 58% place strike and a 49 point profit.
Keep an eye out for Brian Ellison’s, It’s A Mans World, if he turns up at Thirsk in May. The Kyllachy gelding has won in this month for the last two years, winning a 7f Handicap on soft in 2012, while he took a class 4 Handicap at the Yorkshire track last year over a mile on soft, off a 23lb higher mark.
It’s A Mans World, may need to come down the weights a little, but, is four wins from eight starts at Thirsk and certainly worth following if the extremely talented Megan Carberry is claiming 10lb.
Doncaster hosts an seven race card on Monday 12 May, where following trainer Michael Dods has paid dividends in the last three seasons. Sticking with the Darlington handler’s charges aged three or four year olds in Handicaps, have produced a 43% strike rate and a 42-point profit.
Beverley have their fourth meeting of the season on Tuesday 13 May, and a major trend that stuck out a mile, at the first meeting this year, was the effect of the draw.
The Beverley management have, in recent years, been keen to play down the effect of the draw on the Westwood over 5f. But on that days ‘good’ ground, eight of the nine win and place positions were filled by runners drawn between one and five, with wins for stalls one, two and five.
Now I do believe the key here is the ground. Looking at results on the softer side of good, there is no defining factor concerning the draw over 5f, but on ‘Good’ ground at Beverley since 2012, 12 of the 14 winners, in races with up to 12 runners, were drawn between one and five from 142 runners. A trend, we should keep in mind over the summer months.
The column had a double at the last meeting, with another Mark Johnston angle, the Middleham handler has a 30% strike rate in April and May at the course in the last three years and a 28-point profit to boot.
But, if we stick with his runners that have had up to just four runs in their short careers, SP up to 8/1 and are in the first three in the betting, now results in a staggering 85% strike rate with a 42 point profit.