Tony’s Trends: Horses to follow in November

Nicky Henderson (96) and Paul Nicholls (84) of course top the table in the number of winners trained during November in the last four years. Backing these two blindly though, despite the winners would have you out of pocket to the tune of 123 points to a one point stake.

Trainers, and especially National Hunt trainers, are creatures of habit, and while Henderson and Nicholls have a good part of their string ready for the early part of the season, both have a number of inmates needing their first run.

With this in mind, a couple of trainers have, in recent years, have their own strings ready in November to take any advantage of shortcomings from the two master trainers.

Emma Lavelle has had a total of 40 winners in November since 2010, providing a 63.47 point profit with a 27% strike rate. Lavelle, who trains in Andover, Hampshire, particularly has her hurdlers in good heart and ready to go this month with her Novice Hurdlers worth following with a 33% win strike rate and a 53% win and place strike rate to boot. Profit can be made from Lavelle’s runners in mid-week, when she regularly targets Exeter, Fontwell, Uttoxeter, Huntingdon and Taunton.

In November 2013 Lavelle visited the winners enclosure with the likes of Mosspark (4/1), Woodland Walk (3/1) and King Boru (7/2) following hurdle wins.

Venetia Williams is well known in racing circles to target January Handicap Chases in the mud, but she is another trainer who has her team ready to fire in November.

In the last four years, Williams has a 14% strike rate, turning a 28-point profit. Digging a little deeper into the figures, following her Handicap Chasers and Novice Handicap Chasers has been very successful with the trend having a 20% and 21% strike rate in the last two years.

Most of Williams’ qualifiers can easily be backed at an each way price, especially on a weekend as a few of her runners come up against a Henderson or Nicholls charge. There are a lot of losers with this trend, but it is worth sticking with, especially looking at her runners at Ascot, Lingfield, Ludlow, Exeter, Uttoxeter and Bangor.

Although qualifiers could be thin on the ground, winners certainly are not when following Donald McCain’s Maiden and Novice Hurdlers in November at Ayr, Bangor, Carlisle, Musselburgh and Newcastle. McCain knows what he has and where to place them with a healthy profit over the last three years with this week’s meeting at Musselburgh (Thursday) supplying a couple of winners in the past. Al Musheer, Master Dee and The Backup Plan hold entries at the time of writing.

The Melbourne Cup took place on Tuesday morning. I was asked to supply the trends and analysis for Racing FM and luckily gave all our listeners the winner in the shape of German-trained, Ryan Moore-ridden Protectionist who was available at 7/1. Moore was majestic as he cut through the field, in the race that stops a nation, winning by over 3L.

Red Cadeaux, trained by Ed Dunlop in Newmarket, was second for the third time in the big race. The eight-year-old is achieving legendary status by finishing second.

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